In its Conventional Wisdom report dated July 1, the Education Intelligence Agency (EIA) stated that last year's NEA active member increase of more than 81,000 was largely due to state affiliate mergers with the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) in Florida and Montana. NEA membership figures published by EIA for last year (excluding student, substitute and retired members) show a decline in 22 states, from a slight decrease of 0.1% in Alabama to a more sizeable slide of 8.8% in Washington, DC and 10.5% in Mississippi.

The flattening of NEA's membership figures in recent years and the modest growth projection for next year may be an indication that the presence of organizations such as the Association of American Educators (AAE) are beginning to be felt. The AAE now has more members than the NEA affiliates in three states: Georgia, Missouri and Texas. According to AAE Executive Director Gary Beckner, the organization's chapter in Mississippi is "dead even" in membership with the NEA affiliate, and AAE is closing the gap in Louisiana. (EIA's membership figures show that the Louisiana NEA affiliate's membership was also down 5.1% last year.)

Early Childhood Push 
These membership figures may have some bearing on the NEA's decision to explore the possibility of organizing early childhood workers, which would add a swell of new dues-paying members to help fund the union's political causes and activities.